Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Market indicates a strong belief Russia will capture Lyman by 2026.

The market probability suggests a 73% chance of Russia capturing all of Lyman by the end of 2026, with a Pulse AI probability slightly lower at 67%. The edge of -6 indicates that the NO side may be undervalued, suggesting potential for a shift in sentiment based on evolving geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical factors and military capabilities are key influences.
• 3 Historical trends may provide context for similar territorial disputes.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, allowing for potential shifts in betting.
• 5 Time until expiry is significant, allowing for developments to unfold.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipalit