Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?

Low probability for Russia to capture all of Prymorske by March 2026.

The market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of Russia capturing all of Prymorske by the specified date, with a NO probability of 94.8%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low expectation for this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 70 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical context suggests low success rates for territorial captures in similar scenarios.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 4 The time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future market shifts.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates that the market pricing is aligned with AI predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the mun