Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?

The market strongly favors that Russia will not capture all of Rodynske by February 28.

Current market probabilities indicate a consensus that Russia will not achieve full control of Rodynske by the specified date. With a market probability of 100% for 'NO' and a Pulse AI probability of 98% for the same outcome, the sentiment leans heavily against the likelihood of this event occurring.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low likelihood of 'YES' at 2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, reflecting strong consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is 210 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Rodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within