Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?

Market indicates a lower likelihood of Russia capturing Rodynske by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 39.5% probability for Russia capturing all of Rodynske by the end of March, suggesting skepticism about this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a slight increase in perceived likelihood but still favoring a 'NO' outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 513 hours.
• 5 Market appears to be efficiently priced with an edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Rodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the m