Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?

Market indicates low probability of Russia capturing Vovchansk by March 31.

The prediction market assigns a 7.5% probability to Russia capturing all of Vovchansk by the end of March, with a stronger consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 9.5%, indicating a modest divergence in expectations. Overall, confidence in the NO outcome is relatively high at 70 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical trends show low success rates for rapid territorial gains in similar conflicts.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 4 The time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.
• 5 Recent events in the region may influence market perceptions and probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is s