Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?

High probability of Russia capturing Hryshyne by April 30, 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus that Russia will capture Hryshyne, with a probability of 99.35%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 93.35%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. Confidence in this prediction is relatively high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued based on AI analysis.
• 3 Confidence level indicates a strong belief in the prediction's accuracy.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 433 hours.
• 5 Geopolitical dynamics could rapidly influence market probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection located at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E in Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution