Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?

High probability of Russia capturing Hryshyne by June 30, 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that Russia will capture Hryshyne, with a probability of 99.55%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 93.55%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. The confidence level of 80 out of 100 reflects a solid but not absolute certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a Russian capture of Hryshyne.
• 2 The market probability shows a significant disparity between YES and NO options.
• 3 The AI model indicates a lower probability, suggesting some skepticism.
• 4 The edge of -6 points suggests the NO side may be undervalued.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 429 hours, adding urgency to the prediction.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection located at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E in Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution