Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?

High probability suggests Russia is likely to capture Hryshyne by March 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief in Russia's likelihood of capturing Hryshyne, with a probability of 98.85%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 91.35%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 7.5 points. The confidence level of 65 out of 100 reflects moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 Market probability shows strong confidence in Russia's military objectives.
• 3 The NO side may be undervalued, suggesting potential market inefficiencies.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty, with room for unexpected developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection located at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E in Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution