Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates a higher chance of Russia capturing Hryshyne by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a 60.5% probability for Russia capturing Hryshyne by March 31, 2026, suggesting a prevailing expectation of success. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 54.5%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. This discrepancy highlights uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape surrounding this event.

• 1 Current sentiment favors a Russian capture of Hryshyne.
• 2 Market probability suggests a close contest between YES and NO.
• 3 Historical trends in similar conflicts may inform future outcomes.
• 4 Liquidity in the market indicates active participation from traders.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 513 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection located at 48.326824° N, 37.081821° E in Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution