Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?

The market strongly predicts Russia will not capture Rodynske by year-end.

Current market probabilities indicate a firm belief that Russia will not capture Rodynske by December 31, with a 100% NO probability. The AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance of a shift in this outcome. Overall confidence in this prediction is high at 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows unanimous confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment, indicating stability.
• 3 High confidence level suggests strong consensus among participants.
• 4 Limited time pressure may affect future sentiment shifts.
• 5 Current geopolitical dynamics favor the status quo against a capture.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png

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