Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?

The market strongly favors that Russia will not capture Rodynske by January 31.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that Russia will not capture Rodynske by the end of January. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal expectations for a shift in this outcome. The confidence level of 85/100 indicates a strong belief in the current assessment.

• 1 Market shows unanimous belief that Russia will not capture Rodynske.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a very low probability of capture at 1%.
• 3 Confidence level indicates strong conviction in the current market stance.
• 4 No imminent time pressure noted, as expiry time is unknown.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolutio