Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Market shows a slight lean against Russia capturing Rodynske by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 52.5% probability that Russia will not capture Rodynske by the end of March, slightly favoring the NO outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a cautious outlook on the likelihood of a successful capture.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly towards NO at 52.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a similar outlook with a 57% probability for NO.
• 3 The edge of -4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 70/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the situation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, r