Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?

The market strongly favors that Russia will not capture Rodynske by November 30.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability against Russia capturing Rodynske by the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1% for a YES outcome, suggesting a strong consensus on the NO position. The confidence level of 85/100 indicates a high degree of certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Market shows a clear NO sentiment with 100% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market, indicating low likelihood of a YES outcome.
• 3 Confidence level of 85/100 suggests strong conviction in the NO prediction.
• 4 Current geopolitical dynamics appear stable, reinforcing the NO stance.
• 5 Limited liquidity may affect market responsiveness to new information.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png

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