Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?

The market strongly favors that Russia will not capture Rodynske by September 30.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Russia will not capture Rodynske by the end of September. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood of a shift in this outlook. With a confidence rating of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market consensus is firmly against a Russian capture of Rodynske.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a very low probability of a Russian victory in this timeframe.
• 3 The edge indicates that the market pricing is aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 4 Current geopolitical dynamics heavily influence market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png

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