Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Market shows a slight lean towards Russia entering Dopropillia by June 30.

The market probability indicates a 55% chance of Russia entering Dopropillia by the end of June, while the Pulse AI suggests a near-even split with a slight edge for the NO side. This discrepancy, combined with the confidence level of 80/100, suggests uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape surrounding this issue.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors YES but remains close.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slight preference for NO, suggesting potential undervaluation.
• 3 Confidence level of 80/100 reflects a moderate degree of certainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market dynamics may shift rapidly based on real-time geopolitical events.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a