Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Market indicates low probability of Russia entering Druzkhivka by June 30.

The prediction market shows a 25.5% probability for Russia entering Druzkhivka by the end of June, with a stronger consensus against it. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a general skepticism about this outcome. With a confidence level of 65 out of 100, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the market's assessment.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing structure.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result o