Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?

Low probability of Russia entering Kherson by June 30, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Russia will not enter Kherson by the end of June, with a NO probability of 95.15%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 8.35%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a consensus against Russian entry.
• 3 Historical trends show low likelihood of rapid territorial changes.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential developments but remains limited.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the city of Kherson (https://maps.app.goo.gl/zwgqUcSNzfHfgTBy9) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a