Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?

The market indicates a low probability of Russia entering Mykhailivka by April 30.

Current market probabilities show a 22% chance of Russia entering Mykhailivka by the end of April, with a stronger consensus on a 'NO' outcome at 78%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 25.5% for a 'YES', indicating some uncertainty but overall confidence in the 'NO' verdict.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Market probability is closely aligned with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 1230 hours, increasing urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, (50.797758° N, 35.315210° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified t