Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?

Market indicates low likelihood of Russia entering Orikhiv by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong preference for a 'NO' outcome regarding Russia's entry into Orikhiv by the end of March, with a probability of 90.5%. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of the event occurring. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of a 'YES' outcome is notably low at 9.5%.
• 3 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 13%.
• 4 The market is assessed to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' reso