Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?

Low probability of Russia entering Sloviansk by June 30, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates an 80.5% likelihood that Russia will not enter Sloviansk by the end of June. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against this event occurring. With a confidence level of 80/100, the market appears fairly priced with minimal edge.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is 19.50%, indicating low confidence in the event occurring.
• 2 Pulse AI probability slightly higher at 21.5%, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 3 The market shows a strong NO sentiment, with a majority of participants expecting no entry.
• 4 The confidence level of 80/100 indicates a robust consensus among market participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2690 hours, allowing for potential developments to influence probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of