Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?

Market leans towards Russia not re-entering Ternuvate by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Russia will not re-enter Ternuvate by the end of March, with a NO probability of 76.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher YES probabilities, suggesting some uncertainty remains in the forecast.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a consensus on stability in Ternuvate.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of Russian re-entries in similar situations.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, which may affect future probability adjustments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the sp