Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?

Market leans towards Russia not entering Vozdvyzhivka by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for a 'NO' outcome regarding Russia's entry into Vozdvyzhivka, with a market probability of 58.5%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a lower likelihood of entry at 37%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge against the AI's predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests market confidence in the status quo.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuating military engagements in the region.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Uncertainty remains due to the unknown time to expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vozdvyzhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, th