Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?

Low probability of Russia entering Zaporizhia by June 30, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Russia will not enter Zaporizhia by the end of June, with a NO probability of 92%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on the unlikelihood of this event occurring within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 92%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 90% for NO.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, suggesting stable predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2484 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the city of Zaporizhia (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory a