Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Low market probability for Russia testing a nuclear weapon by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 2.05% chance of Russia testing a nuclear weapon by March 31, 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 4.05%, but overall confidence in a 'NO' outcome remains high at 85/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a consensus on low risk.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of nuclear tests in recent years.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with sufficient participation.
• 5 Uncertainty around time to expiry may affect future probability shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.