Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ryan Coogler has a low chance of winning Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market indicates a 7.70% probability for Ryan Coogler winning Best Director, suggesting strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this sentiment, estimating a 9.7% probability. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a time to expiry of 141 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment is heavily against Coogler winning.
• 2 Historical trends suggest low odds for underdog candidates in major awards.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent interest.
• 4 Time pressure is a factor as the Oscars approach, potentially influencing bets.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is likely balanced and fairly priced.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director.

If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.