Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Low probability for Sadegh Mahsouli as head of state in Iran by end of 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Sadegh Mahsouli becoming head of state in Iran by the end of 2026, with a market probability of only 0.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current political dynamics and public sentiment do not favor his ascension to this position.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political changes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition with