Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

San Marino has a low chance of advancing in the Eurovision Semi-Final.

The market indicates a low probability of San Marino advancing, with a YES probability of 16.5% compared to 83.5% for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited confidence in San Marino's chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 83.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market, indicating low confidence in YES.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 1028 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.