Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?

San Marino has a very low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to the market.

The prediction market indicates a 0.35% probability of San Marino winning Eurovision 2026, suggesting overwhelming sentiment against their success. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1%, indicating a consensus that San Marino is unlikely to perform well in the competition.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome for San Marino.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level is high, indicating strong market consensus.
• 4 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.