The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Sinners winning Best Casting.
Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% likelihood that Sinners will not win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, with a very low YES probability of 0.05%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for a YES outcome at 2.05%, but overall confidence in the NO outcome remains strong at 80/100.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Achievement in Casting.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Achievement in Casting when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.