Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Sinners has a low chance of winning Best Cinematography at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates an 81% probability that Sinners will not win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards. With a market probability of 19% for a win, the sentiment leans heavily against Sinners, although the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance at 22.5%. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced relative to the AI's prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Sinners.
• 2 The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with a low edge.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, with only 137 hours remaining for potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Cinematography.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.