Will Sinners win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?

Sinners is highly unlikely to win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards.

The market shows a dominant NO probability of 99.95%, indicating a strong consensus against Sinners winning Best Visual Effects. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 99% NO probability, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.95. Overall confidence in this prediction is high at 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Sinners has minimal recognition in the visual effects category.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low chances for films with similar profiles.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Visual Effects.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.