Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

The market strongly favors that the show won't have the best opening weekend in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' achieving the best domestic opening weekend in 2026, with a consensus of 98.75% against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 98.75%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for a YES at 4.75%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 7062 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's open