Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?

High probability for a Selic rate decrease after March 2026 meeting.

The market indicates an 82.40% probability that the Bank of Brazil will decrease the Selic rate after the March 2026 meeting. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 80.9%, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a rate decrease.
• 2 The probability reflects expectations of easing monetary policy.
• 3 Historical trends show rate cuts often follow economic slowdowns.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 7 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its March 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for March 16-17, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.