Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?

The market strongly favors no increase in the key rate after the March Meeting.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood of no increase in the key rate, with a consensus of 99.15% against an increase. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong preference for no change, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors no rate increase.
• 2 Market probability shows strong confidence in the status quo.
• 3 Historical trends suggest stability in the key rate.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 221 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.