Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the March meeting?

Market strongly favors a change in the Central Bank's decision at the March meeting.

The prediction market indicates a 98.55% probability that the Central Bank of Colombia will announce a change at its March meeting, contrasting with a lower AI probability of 97.05%. This suggests that market sentiment is firmly against the status quo, although the edge indicates that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a change in policy.
• 2 AI probability is slightly higher than market, but still indicates a change.
• 3 Confidence level at 60 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a strong expectation of policy adjustment.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its March 31, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos.

This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.