Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

The market strongly favors that the Doge-1 Lunar Mission will not launch before 2027.

Currently, the probability of the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launching before 2027 is very low at 1.4%. With a high confidence level of 80/100, the market suggests that the likelihood of a launch occurring in this timeframe is minimal, and the pricing appears fair based on current sentiment.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 98.6%.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about the mission's timeline.
• 3 Confidence level of 80/100 indicates strong market conviction.
• 4 No edge detected, suggesting fair market pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7121 hours, allowing for potential updates.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.