Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 13°F or below on March 17?

Chicago's temperature is expected to exceed 13°F on March 17.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Chicago will be above 13°F on March 17, with a 100% probability for the NO outcome. The AI model corroborates this view, assigning a 99% probability to the NO outcome as well, suggesting confidence in warmer conditions. The market appears fairly priced with a low edge and moderate confidence level.

• 1 Market shows strong confidence in temperatures above 13°F.
• 2 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly against the YES outcome.
• 3 Weather forecasts are key drivers of market expectations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with only 1 hour until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.