Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?

Market indicates a low chance of Chicago reaching 54°F on March 11.

The prediction market shows an 88.45% probability for temperatures in Chicago to remain below 54°F on March 11, suggesting a consensus that warmer conditions are unlikely. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with the market, indicating a fair pricing of expectations. With 23 hours until expiry, the confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors temperatures below 54°F.
• 2 The probability gap between YES and NO is substantial.
• 3 Historical weather patterns in March may support current predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is increasing as the expiry approaches in less than a day.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.