Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?

Market strongly favors temperatures below 56°F in Chicago on March 24.

The prediction market shows a significant probability of 99.95% for temperatures not reaching 56°F in Chicago on March 24. Both the market and AI probabilities align closely, indicating a consensus that temperatures will remain low. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced with strong confidence in the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 56°F.
• 2 The consensus probability indicates strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Market edge suggests fair pricing with minimal arbitrage opportunities.
• 4 AI predictions closely align with market expectations, reinforcing the NO stance.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may stabilize current probabilities until closer to the date.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.