Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 21?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 78°F in Chicago on March 21.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, the consensus is that the highest temperature will not reach 78°F. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for YES. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures reaching 78°F.
• 2 The probability gap suggests strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the current predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating reliable pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.