Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?

The market predicts a low chance of temperatures reaching 78°F in Chicago on March 26.

With a market probability of 98.7% for NO, participants expect temperatures to remain below 78°F. The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in this prediction, suggesting that while the consensus is strong, there is still some uncertainty. The time to expiry is only 1 hour, indicating imminent weather conditions will soon clarify the outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 78°F.
• 2 Weather forecasts are critical in shaping market expectations.
• 3 Historical data may show similar temperature patterns for this date.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is high with only 1 hour until the outcome.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.