Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 78°F in Chicago on March 9.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 78°F. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of exceeding this temperature. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 78°F.
• 2 The probability of YES is extremely low at 0.05%.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, indicating consensus.
• 4 Confidence level suggests a strong belief in the NO outcome.
• 5 No time to expiry is provided, but the market remains stable.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.