Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 27?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 40-41°F in Chicago on March 27.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that temperatures will not fall within the 40-41°F range. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this temperature range being met. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 40°F.
• 2 Historical weather patterns in late March typically do not support this temperature range.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with minimal fluctuations in probability.
• 4 The confidence level of 85/100 indicates strong conviction in the NO outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but current forecasts suggest low likelihood of change.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.