Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on March 17?

The market strongly predicts that Hong Kong's temperature won't reach 18°C on March 17.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that the highest temperature in Hong Kong will not reach 18°C on March 17. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 99% for a NO outcome, suggesting a strong consensus among participants. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows a clear consensus with 100% NO probability.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% NO.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 80 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.