Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on March 18?

Market strongly favors temperatures above 18°C in Hong Kong on March 18.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of the highest temperature in Hong Kong being 18°C or below on March 18, with a 99.95% chance of the opposite. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong inclination towards higher temperatures, suggesting a consensus on warmer weather. With only 23 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors temperatures above 18°C.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Current confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Edge of 0.95 suggests the market is well-balanced and fairly priced.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.