Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on March 28?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 18°C in Hong Kong on March 28.

With a market probability of 99.95% for temperatures exceeding 18°C, the sentiment is overwhelmingly against the possibility of a cooler day. The Pulse AI also reflects a strong inclination towards higher temperatures, indicating a consensus among participants. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures at or below 18°C.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market expectations, indicating consensus.
• 3 The edge of 0.95 suggests the market is accurately priced based on available information.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential last-minute changes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.