Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on March 27?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 19°C in Hong Kong on March 27.

With a market probability of 99.95% for temperatures exceeding 19°C, the consensus indicates a high likelihood of warmer weather. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance for temperatures to drop below this threshold. The edge of 0.95 implies the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors temperatures above 19°C.
• 2 Historical weather patterns in late March typically show warmer temperatures.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with minimal fluctuations.
• 4 The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to short-term forecasts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.