Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 18?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 20°C in Hong Kong on March 18.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', it suggests a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 20°C. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of this temperature being reached within the next 21 hours.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 20°C.
• 2 The high confidence level indicates a stable consensus among participants.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, suggesting fair pricing.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 21 hours until expiry.
• 5 Low liquidity may impact the ability to adjust positions effectively.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.