Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 23?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 20°C in Hong Kong on March 23.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 20°C. The Pulse AI probability also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher chance for YES at 1.55%. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 20°C.
• 2 High liquidity indicates strong participant confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical weather data for March in Hong Kong supports lower temperature trends.
• 4 The confidence level suggests moderate certainty but acknowledges potential variability.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.