Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 24?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 20°C in Hong Kong on March 24.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', it indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 20°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, suggesting a high level of confidence in the prediction. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 20°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests strong confidence in the prediction.
• 3 Historical weather data may support the current market stance.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.